The past 2015 years let many people feel that "clothing", company bankruptcy, the boss run, performance decline, the failure of public opinion... This is the worst of times, is also the best of times. After accumulated experience to meet the challenge, more and more enterprises have to deal with ideas, work force, also can become the passive to active, more active change, active flexibility, initiative.
In 2016, the Chinese clothing industry are faced with the problem is still grim, from the developing trend of always, future trend of the development of the clothing retail industry has the following several aspects:
A, traditional ordering system will gradually decline
If you are now chatting with retailers, ask them what's the most disturbing question, they will say: inventory! Inventory problem has never been like today for retailers and brands bring pressure. Caused the sticking point of this unprecedented even losses, lies in the traditional system of the order.
About a decade ago, China's garment industry has just from bulk to the store, some companies began to try ordering system. At that time, all the retail level is not high, the retailer can't loading, so the company began to think about the order, and order index to retailers. Due to the business is relatively good, so the order is made for the clothing retail more bring positive effects.
Then, brand companies started to follow suit, and put a year marketing focus entirely on the order at the meeting. Some marketing director from the heart that one year of sales is good, just see the fair here. With hotel standard is higher and higher, so the order of the specifications of the dinner drink more and more high, please the teacher is not to teach how retailers to sell goods, but think about how to make the retailer to order more goods. So the order will create the great deviation on concept - how to sell the goods to the agent and retailers.
This thinking continued down, let the brand company began to join policy research, such as had been 100% rate of return, the reward policy... Basically, including the accounting rate of return, is "even when all the return rate with the customers, the company also can guarantee money" mode of thinking.
And the second order system cannot control factor is the anticipation of the weather, a few years ago many companies bet on down jacket is a very typical case. Shock is a lot of women's clothing company with heavy gold to independently developed a down jacket brand, why? It is still a gambler and quickly take psychological. Exchange fair average 6 to 9 months in advance, how do you know that next year's winter is cold winter or warm winter? How long does it cold? When cold? Seemingly scientific reference to past data to order way, actually are deluding themselves, how can data yesterday decided tomorrow?
Actually order itself is not the cause of inventories, quick take the psychological and risk shifting psychology is a problem at all! The same quantity of goods, when performance fell 10%, if the past inventory is 10%, and total inventory will reach 20%, and declining performance itself makes gross margin decline, so that let retail from the original have surplus become barely break even or even losses. Today's market to a 10% drop in revenue performance is inevitable, so, if the brand company is still in traditional order mode and ideological work, to innovate, from the perspective of retailer solution, this brand will die soon!
Second, parity goods shop mode will shine brilliantly
If there are a large family of brands in 2014-2015 revenue performance is still rising, the group of parity goods shop brand. Please note that is not affordable brand, but goods shop brand parity group.
Parity group goods shop brand is the first advantage of parity. Traditional brand with agents, franchisees, so is the "factory - brand company - agent - retailer - customer" of the industrial chain, as the raw material and labor costs rise, plus brand company greed, caused many ordinary domestic brands the price of the retail price is close to the international top luxury brands. As the pressure on the lives of Chinese people is more and more big, people to the clothing consumption become rational, more willing to choose cheaper and high quality products.
Parity goods shop brand set of the second advantage is more, fashion. Traditional brand company is generally a quarter of 100-200, and for group goods shop, wholesale markets and factories across the country are its large warehouse, a quarter can have thousands of models. Group of goods shop for products is very flexible, can be hot style, if can't repair can also do the new, not out of stock, if the set of goods level relative major, and basically do not have any pressure. Because style more, regardless of location, will be more fashionable than traditional brands.
Parity goods shop brand set of the third advantage is that inventory pressure is small. Because traditional brand order forecasting model, group of goods shop is pin quantitatively. Sell more into a bit more, a little less into less. Due to the set of goods shop purchase frequency is very high, so the warehouse no goods, nature also won't have pressure. Traditional brands return rate is only brand companies and retailers who will undertake more inventory to the game, not solve the problem of inventory management.
In the past, bulk shop does not pay attention to image, service and management. Today, the bulk shop in image, service and management, and even beyond the traditional brand retailers, plus and inventory control, product positioning, price advantage, national and regional group parity goods shop brand will shine brilliantly in 2016. While traditional brand company, also should consider whether group goods model of internal factors can be grafted into the traditional mode of brand, and play to their strengths, out of his way.
Three, "mobile + is store the path to success
Never blame and abuse of your rivals, including electricity and your shop next door. If the electricity affect you, you should embrace the electricity; If affected your next door, you should learn from next door.
PC (PC) electricity business in 2016 will also meet the challenge of larger, because where people, where is the business. The life of people has been shifted from the computer, TV to mobile phone, which seems to be more beneficial for those who have Internet retailers.
Internet do electricity thinking is not let you go, but with the Internet to serve store, precisely, is to use mobile Internet to serve store, also is the "mobile +!
There is no doubt that WeChat is the first big Internet store marketing tool. Most people dress in the morning before must first open the WeChat, brush and before sleeping will make friends.
A team of brand company, can consider to do a brand platform for the public; If you think you're not professional, so you should have a good study WeChat private number (individual WeChat ID) used in the store. In simple terms, register a WeChat ID, name is your brand + name of the store, and then add the customer as a friend, classification and note again, through the circle of friends, in the form of mass and customer relationship management and invitation.
Don't scold ma robbed the store's business, mobile Internet era, it is only natural that a mobile interconnection of thinking, not only to do, the more want to do a store WeChat ID, let this WeChat ID friends into your "customers".
Fourth, buckle point mall will be even more dismal
Circa 2004 in hangzhou tower (hangzhou) is a famous department store, department stores in China has entered a "every section shall be filled with minus" business process. And today, as long as it is the weekend, there are almost full or other price reduction activities. This way of promotion, in the beginning really attracted sentiment, increased sales, but today, has become the supplier of a pain - sell how many money.
In ten years ago, the brand company and provincial agents agree that in a good store will give brand "long face", of "image", meaning even lose money can accept, just as the AD. This kind of psychology that department stores became louder and strong, for more than 95% of the supplier must be unconditional shopping activities.
Why do malls activities frequently do? Ostensibly to enhance performance and competition, in fact the core reason is that stores and suppliers are not benefit community, the market is by sales with buckle, and supplier need to gross profit. Only improve the average sales discount can guarantee the gross margin, when sales discount is too low, the performance, the higher the lose. A performance, a sales discount, two completely different direction. When the market strength, naturally it pays to suppliers. Some suppliers to wake up early and have gradually out of store formats (or must have activities involved in the decision); The other part of the supplier stock prices, with an outlet, greatly affect the overall image of the store and popularity; There are some people still "stubborn", continue to warm water boiled frog.
Another point is that the old shopping mall in the very aspects of parking facilities, supporting services and facilities, aging, shopping environment is far less than new shopping mall, is also the reason for the decline in popularity and performance.
If the mall itself without reform, the next two to three years there will be a lot of stores closed; If the supplier is not active strain, operating pressure will be greater and greater.
Five, the transfer fee, no longer the landlord no longer mouth shut
If in the 15 years ago, you bring the investment set up shop money pay down payment of pedestrian street facade, today you can collect the rent had a better; If ask today where is China's largest real estate bubbles, then in the clothing store rent.
The earliest time, the previous tenant just to decorate subsidies (such as air conditioning, etc.), then turns out that the good position can be very high, so he created a "transfer". Some people even start this business - first way from rent with the landlord to the appearance, then a transfer fee to the actual operator. From then on, want to take street shop, basically take transfer fee, transfer fee to become a kind of illegal folk conventions.
Due to good do business over the past few years, some brand company bullish, dig appearance at a high price. The landlord found business so good do next door, nature also follow up the rent; There is a strange character, called the "principal lodger, even three landlords four landlord. These behavior, is makes the rent so high. Later, of course, the development of commercial real estate, on the whole industry chain is decided according to the rent price, boutique shops rent so bubble. You know, the rent per rose 100000, need more to sell about 400000 results can make up, which have so good to do business?
Bubble somebody will pay for it. Retailers points in bear the high rent, the last of the transfer fee of retailers pay for high transfer fee, but the landlord will also pay for rising rents. Today, most of the region, even the best location will no longer need to transfer fee or only a very low transfer fee, but also to remind you, now take the transfer of the shop must be careful and cautious. And the landlords, don't again so cattle, lowers himself to his own stores a reasonable price!
In 2016, China's garment industry ten big trend The situation is still grim 0. JPG
Six, shopping mall will be opening a new peak
In 2015, China opened more than 500 new large shopping mall. In 2016, the shopping mall will usher in a new round of opening peak, the original entity stores and retailers is good or bad? I believe you have to judge.
Shopping mall can be enlarged the value of the property. Appearance only on the first floor, a rare in the street within 10 meters deep position is valuable, and shopping mall has changed the phenomenon, do not calculate in a center position, build a commercial real estate, can be in the position of the fifth floor to rent out or sell high price. Relative to the nature of the housing, factories and office buildings, clearly the value of commercial real estate is several times higher. The shopping mall in addition to the value of the rental itself, and the value of the real estate appreciation. So, some enterprises with the ability to plan will aim at the formats. As to whether or not caused by excess capacity in commercial real estate influence on shunt and the performance of the original entity shop flow? Anyway, they are not open clothing store.
In the past some of the biggest agents, retailers, by a decade or two years of operation, has accumulated a certain amount of money, connections, and found that stores rising rents, so they are thinking in the form of a chamber of commerce set up shopping mall or class shopping mall.
Store performance over the years of the most stressful "culprit", not electricity, but the entity channels due to the large increase of stream of people scattered. Now, buckle point stores, large supermarkets, community shops, shopping mall, such as a variety of formats are blind expansion, in the short term, the commercial real estate developers if decisions right should be biased, and buy these formats property risk is huge, for existing entities shop operator, is the increased flow of shunt, 2016 stores in the return on investment may be a steady decline.
After years of market baptism, clothing brand company, the landlord, shopping mall developer, department stores and other retailers upstream, only know "altruism" can live better. And in the future period of time, retailers may continue for a period of time needs to be under high pressure, through this period of time later, to the rest of the retailer will have their own spring!
Seven small, regional market and beauty is a retailer
Before talking about a lot about the retail market trend, then, retailers road in where? I want to, need through structural thinking against the operating pressure.
Compared with the past few years, constructions of a decline in investment returns has been the fact that cannot be changed, as retailers, also no longer need to compete with in the past few years the rate of return on investment, rather than through the scale to enhance the overall profits. Pursuit of profit value rather than the pursuit of profit margins, to pursue same-store revenue profit instead of return on investment!
What is a small and beautiful? First of all, whether you do join or group of goods shop, will reduce the number of brands, in order to reduce operating costs, the upstream overall inventory cost and management cost; Second, regional focus as far as possible. A street with brand to open more stores? These seem to be only the practice of sports and leisure brands tried, seems to be very few people tried in the middle of the other category. For a second-tier cities, due to the number of live, so there is enough capacity to meet more than a street shop; For three or four line city, can think of more than a street shop "strong", "brand". And the most important thought is: if you don't rob your own business, brand competition will take you more business. And it turns out, those in the town of more than a street shop brands, all brand under the leading of the competition.
Of course, the "concentration" is relative, is composed of a city slowly spread to the surrounding; The "small" is relative, different people's understanding of "small" are also different, three shop is small, 300 shops can also be small. The brand, the contraction area is effective business strategy.
Eight, the initiative will be offset to the retailers
In recent years, China's clothing retail pressure mainly comes from two reasons: channel surplus, overcapacity. In fact, China does not need so many street shop, mall and business, also do not need so many brands and products. Channel surplus and excess capacity first victims are retailers, and the final beneficiary and retailers.
Channel first let retailers suffer because of excess consumption, more and more consumer choice, so cause decline in revenue performance, operating pressure. In the past, has always been a strong brand headquarters, retailers once joined a brand, becomes weak, because most of the products for the purpose of brand companies do is sell goods to retailers.
With the pressure in recent years, part of the retailers to be eliminated, and now the remaining, the overall level is generally higher than the past. With the rise of the group of goods shop model over the past two years, let retailers know that actually doesn't have to go to the brand company to choose goods, the country is their big warehouse. If the brand company didn't go to study consumers, terminal market, blindly joining policy research, is bound to have been eliminated.
The market is fair, demand greater than supply, the supplier actively; Supply, begging the initiative. The future will be in a long period of time, from the Angle of channel and commodity procurement, retailers are in the active position. On the one hand, distributors and brand companies to rethink plans with retailers, and depth study of terminal; Good retailers, on the other hand, spring is coming!
Nine, factory outlets worth exploring
Parity group goods shop is most suited to open in where? You may answer: bustling commercial pedestrian street, the supermarket, university town... Because of you locate customers concentrated in these areas. Today, you need to think about a new channel - factory store.
Every big city has some very concentrated industrial park, which focus on a large number of workers, such as garment industrial park, each layer of 1000 square meters of floor, there may be hundreds of production workers. And these production-oriented industrial parks are often very concentrated. Industrial garden in the past, these people in addition to the daily necessities of life, in the clothing, food and beverage, leisure consumption is very economical. Today, after over 90 become engines of this type of workers, their consumption has soared in the clothing.
These industrial park may not have a centralized clothing street, may be more snacks, some even considered, and the rent is very cheap, often from the original location of the standards, noses at you. But some goods brand parity group actually have found this a "gold mine". After 90 s generation of workers is willing to spend money, but because of job characteristics, they went to the mall of the frequency is relatively low.
What do factory stores should pay attention to? One is a bargain price, your price is surprising, outside and went in still; 2 it is relatively basic types, unfavorable fashion, sexy style in the past; 3 it is to consider a sale store. You have inventory, the best digestive channel? If the style matching, perhaps factory shop very suitable for, because the traffic was concentrated, small and cheap rents, competition.
Find your local the most concentrated industrial park, look at, perhaps a few months later, you will appreciate me behind my back.
Ten, artificial cost cost could become the biggest in the store
In the future, what is the most difficult to manage? The answer is - people! Soon, the retail shops will appear two characteristics: 1) labor costs will become the first big cost beyond the rent; 2) store employees total wages will surpass the boss will profit.
We have been studying the employee incentive mechanism, are also studying how to hold on. Seems to be seemingly scientific incentive mechanism, the past few years that became today's workers to work for money, don't work for money is not personality. Such as you find half a month for the first time that do not move, take out let people sell a just reward 20, sold very good; For a second time to do such incentives, the effect is generally; The third time... Staff will tell you: "boss, this is death, is not a question of money." You also find a lot of ways to stay, but the staff turnover is you haven't solve the problem of the eternal.
But in three years, after 00 will enter your shop. With the past after 60, 70, 80 and 90 today, compared to 00 after will be more challenging. Why is that? Because their father, their common family condition is good, can appear even driving a BMW to apply for the phenomenon of shoppers, or your employees will be more money than you. What kind of incentives can make more money than you one-child positive? There seems to be no.
In fact, all our past research incentive mechanism and the retention mechanism is not scientific, because the one who is, won't last for others actively, also won't last loyalty to others. So, we have to accept the above two trends of choose and employ persons, with the heart of the platform, think about a partnership, let everyone to work for themselves.
Employees to think that oneself take what chips to partner companies to; The platform structures boss is to thinking, thinking, from employment to cooperation,, sharing, sharing. Such management thinking is the future.
