Went to the node years, compared with previous years, this year's foreign trade situation is extremely severe. Major economies quietly changing consumption patterns as well as several major currencies fluctuating exports are the main factors that influence affects the nervous textile foreign trade enterprises. Starting from this issue, the international trade edition from "View trend", "read" policy, "asked enterprises" three different perspectives on the industry imports and exports in the first half of conduct inventory.
Despite starting from the end of last year, economists and various experts have repeatedly stressed that the Chinese economy, including export situation will enter a new normal low growth, steady growth, but at the national textile and clothing import and export trade data released after the first quarter, people still feel unexpected, and even some panic.
The first months of this year, China's textile and garment exports dropped significantly by 10.8% year on year, higher than the national average decline of 3.3% in foreign trade. Subsequently, in February data Sharp straight, but the ring than the month exports still fell by 15%. In March, exports of textile and apparel trade volume was 12.56 billion US dollars, for the past five years, the lowest value over the same period, down 32.6 percent. Experts placate one or two months of data does not mean anything, especially in January and March coincided with the Chinese New Year, when instability have occurred, such fluctuations can not represent the norm. People in the skeptical attitude, ushered in the data in April, May. Regrettably, and the current stock market, as China's textile and garment exports are still in a downward trajectory.
If you carefully analyze such changes be reasonable, China as the world's major exporter of textiles and clothing, trade must be with the changes in the world economy continues to fluctuate. Across the globe, the world situation is evolving, Russia and the deterioration of the relationship between the United States and Europe to break the balance of the large economies; Greece's debt crisis caused the collapse of the once-paced economic recovery in Europe as a whole; and the growing cost and rapid economic development, so that China can no longer play the role of a single plant in the world, but to assume greater responsibility.
In this case, Chinese merchants from continually asking why, how to do, to final approval and accustomed only to fall not rise is the norm, and is actively looking for ways to compensate for the loss of their mind with fluctuations in export trade has undergone tremendous Variety. Subsequently, in May exports declined more than in the past narrowed news, people seemed to ignite the second half of some hope.
Exports a red five green
In January, textile and apparel exports dropped significantly by 10.8% year on year, higher than the national average decline of 3.3% in foreign trade. Among them, textile exports $ 9.72 billion, down 7.8%, apparel exports 15.82 billion US dollars, down 12.5 percent, garment exports fell more than textiles. February, textile and apparel trade volume was 23.11 billion US dollars, up 82.4 percent, of which exports $ 21.68 billion, an increase of 99.3%. 1 to 2 months, total textile and apparel trade $ 50.82 billion, an increase of 17 per cent, of which exports $ 47.22 billion, an increase of 19.3%. In February, exports of textile and apparel giant, an increase of nearly doubled, and in January a weak start in stark contrast. March, textile and apparel trade volume was 15.01 billion US dollars, down 28.3 percent, of which exports $ 12.56 billion, down 32.6 percent. From January to March, total textile and apparel trade $ 65.82 billion, an increase of 2.3%, of which exports $ 59.78 billion, an increase of 2.8%, with the beginning of a big gap between expected. March exports for the past five years, the lowest value over the same period. Meanwhile, the month the country's textile and garment exports in total exports of goods trade share of below 10% for the first time, was 8.7%. In April, textile and apparel trade volume was 22.13 billion US dollars, down 15.2 percent, of which exports $ 19.88 billion, down 16.3%. 1 to April, total textile and apparel trade $ 87.95 billion, down 2.8%, of which exports $ 79.66 billion, down 2.7%. In April compared with March decline has narrowed, but still double-digit, so the first four months of total exports of 2.7% negative growth. In addition, the first month of the year now import and export the same month double down. May, China's textile and apparel trade volume was 25.44 billion US dollars, down 6.4 percent, of which exports $ 23.39 billion, down 6.3%, a decline compared with April continued to decline to less than 10%. 1 to May, China's total textile and apparel trade volume 113.39 billion US dollars, down 3.6 percent, of which exports $ 103.05 billion, down 3.6%. May export decline slowed thanks to improved US market to a certain extent.
World economic changes considerably
United States
Judging from the first half, the US consumer market is "dumbbell-shaped" feature, the industry generally optimistic about its low-end luxury market and consumption, while the mid-market reservations. Credit Suisse Statistics show that the United States will remain the world's richest country, the 2019 gathering of the country's total wealth will be more than 114 trillion US dollars. The country's strong luxury consumption caused by the global luxury goods industry attention. Italian luxury brand Salvatore Ferragamo CEO Norsa said that from 2014, the United States has been the first brand investment program is located. Similarly, Louis • Vuitton Group, also said sales of the highlights of the past two years in the United States, a quarter of its sales in the United States compared with the same period last year an increase of 8%.
On the other hand, many US brand for a variety of operating pressure went bankrupt. Such as the United States announced the closure of the old ladies JonesNewYork 127 retail stores, teen Women and accessories brand WetSeal bankruptcy. In addition, the most popular middle-class American store Macy's announced earlier this year to establish discount Macy'sBackstage. The group said, to provide consumers with lower prices, more reasonable product is currently US department stores better direction of reform. In fact, more than adjust the business of the US retailer Macy's one, its competitors Nordstrom, SaksInc., Etc. have launched discount. US research institutions TheNPDGroupInc., Said in February 2014 - February 2015, the US market take the low road of retailers sales growth of 2.5%, on sales of $ 23.2 billion.
Europe
In the first half of this year, the European market has not significantly improved over last year, continued weakness in the overall economic recovery is slow, which directly led European importers decline in orders. Meanwhile, the depressed state of the European economy, high unemployment rate and other factors led to the industry's lack of confidence in the market.
In Britain, for example, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers statistics, last year the number of British high street stores close to 5839, the number of newly opened 4852, including the newly opened retail clothing brand few. Most stores due to poor sales, lost speed shop shut down quickly, so the British high street is extraordinarily quiet.
Although it reported that the country's consumer confidence has been restored, but the increase in the number of stores net decrease reflects the economy and consumer confidence edged slightly warmer recover no slack play any role in mitigation retail situation. But it is worth noting that, since consumers prefer low-priced consumer, British online shopping strength.
Performance of other countries than the United Kingdom is not good, according to other European countries - the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics data released in the first quarter of this year, the country's garment and textile shop turnover dropped by 2.2% and 8.8%, respectively.
Africa
This year, AGOA "African Growth and Opportunity Act" for Africa to once again become the focus of attention in the textile and apparel industry. In mid-April, the United States several bills related to trade, such as AGOA "African Growth and Opportunity Act," was sent to the House of Representatives and the Senate hearing, the news for many Native American retailers such as apparel and footwear as well as Africa's export business lifted as the biggest beneficiary under the AGOA textile and apparel industry than to promote the trade agenda so that they finally see hope.
Subsequently, the US House of Representatives voted 397 votes to 32 votes through the extension of "African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)". The bill will be postponed for 10 years, until 2025 deadline, while the retroactive extension of "general preferential tariff regime of (GSP)", and "Haiti trade preference program."
Investigation on the apparel industry consulting firm McKinsey showed that the world's largest clothing retailers have expressed great interest in sourcing from sub-Saharan Africa. According to the survey, 40 percent of buyers believe that the next five years, sub-Saharan Africa in the clothing industry plays an increasingly important role, while the figure in 2013 was only 24%.
Not only is the European and American buyers, China's textile industry is also concerned that this piece of land. Earlier this year, the famous economist Lin Yifu has pointed out that the most suitable location of labor-intensive industries should be in Africa. In April, Chinese textile delegation to Ethiopia study, then there is the entrepreneur that it is considering the transfer of industry to this.
Fluctuating exchange rate kept
EUR
Floating exchange rate is an important factor affecting foreign trade in the first half. In late January, the euro exchange rate fell below the 7.0 mark, although subsequently had rebounded slightly, but has been hovering around 7. At press time, one euro against 6.8698 yuan. In fact, since last May, the euro continued to depreciate all the way down, since the decline of nearly 20%. This led to China's textile and garment exports to the EU pressures continue to increase.
Ruble
From the end of last year, the Russian economy continues to be weak. Up until April, the ruble devaluation triggered a chain reaction, especially with a large degree of influence on China's garment exports. Since the two sides mainly denominated in US dollars in the course of trade, under the ruble devaluation, even though Chinese supplier or seller does not raise dollar prices, the Russian buyers or buyers still need to pull out more rubles to buy the same piece of merchandise ʱ?? In the first half, both Russia exports large garment enterprises or individual traders, all of the trade outlook is full of sorrow. In the fur industry, for example, orders plummeted, from April to May this year, came to Beijing Albemarle Road Russia to purchase at least two-thirds reduction.
However, in April, the ruble strong growth, the dollar fell against the ruble exchange rate for the first time since December 2014 to 1 dollar 51 rubles. They have speculated in the most difficult times of the Russian economy over? After May, the ruble exchange rate have declined. As of press time, the dollar 57.3950 rubles.
JPY
May 27, 100 yen against the RMB exchange rate for the first time fell below 5. June 2 exchange rate of 100 yen about 4.9196 yuan, a record low value of the August 31, 1994 since.
Not only for the yuan, the yen against other world currencies are depreciating. June 2, the US dollar against the yen to break through 125 yen against the US dollar hit a new low since 2002. However, unlike these countries it is different, the Japanese government is willing to let the yen subjective, hoping to cope with deflation and drive export growth and stimulate economic development. According to media reports, the Japanese industry said that the yen will encourage more companies to move back to their production bases in Japan, and an increase in local production will help boost domestic local economic development.
Indeed, in the textile and clothing sector, the yen and the South Korea and other countries on China's export trade caused no small impact. In addition, the depreciation of the yen, South Korean tourism industry suffered a serious blow, the first half of the country's overall economic impact is not small.
